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Animated: Global Debt Projections (2005-2027P)

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Animated Chart: Global Debt Projections

Total global debt stands at nearly $305 trillion as of the first quarter of 2023.

Over the next five years, it is projected to jump even furtherโ€”raising concerns about government leverage in a high interest rate and slower growth environment.

As global debt continues to climb, this animated graphic shows data and projections for public debt-to-GDP ratios using the World Economic Outlook (April 2023 update) from the IMF.

Growing Global Debt Projections

After rising steadily for years, government debt first ballooned to almost 100% of GDP in 2020. While this ratio has fallen amid an economic rebound and high inflation in 2021 and 2022, it is projected to regain ground and continue climbing.

World government debt is now projected to rise to 99.5% of GDP by 2027. Hereโ€™s data going back to 2005, as well as the forecast for global public debt-to-GDP:

Year๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China๐ŸŒŽ Global Average
2027P134.0%105.9%99.5%
2026P131.8%101.0%98.2%
2025P129.2%95.7%96.8%
2024P125.9%90.1%95.1%
2023P122.2%84.4%93.6%
2022121.7%77.5%92.3%
2021126.4%72.3%95.7%
2020133.5%70.1%99.8%
2019108.7%60.4%84.2%
2018107.4%56.7%82.8%
2017106.2%55.0%82.6%
2016107.2%50.7%83.8%
2015105.1%41.5%79.9%
2014104.5%40.0%78.6%
2013104.5%37.0%78.3%
2012103.0%34.4%79.7%
201199.5%33.8%77.9%
201095.1%33.9%76.9%
200986.6%34.6%74.7%
200873.4%27.2%64.3%
200764.6%29.2%61.3%
200664.2%25.6%64.3%
200565.4%26.3%68.1%

Debt sharply increased in both 2020 and 2009 in conjunction with economic downturns. Historically, debt levels compared to GDP tend to increase as little as 4% and much as 15% in the five years after a global recession has ended.

In the U.S., public debt-to-GDP is set to reach a record 134% by 2027. The sharp rise in interest rates is increasing net debt servicing costs, which stood at $475 billion last year. Over the next 10 years, net interest costs on U.S. debt are projected to total $10.6 trillion.

Chinaโ€™s debt has also risen rapidly, and is projected to eclipse 100% by 2026. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is forecast to jump fourfold between 2005 and 2027. This year alone, new government debt issuance is projected to hit record levels. A large portion of this debt consists of infrastructure bonds that are focused on boosting the economy.

Comparing Trends Across Global Economies

Below, we show how the public debt-to-GDP ratios for advanced economies compare with emerging markets and low-income countries. Both the U.S. and China are excluded here:

YearAdvanced EconomiesEmerging MarketsLow-Income
Countries
2027P103.8%57.2%43.8%
2026P104.1%56.9%44.5%
2025P104.4%56.6%45.3%
2024P104.5%56.1%46.3%
2023P105.2%55.7%47.6%
2022105.5%55.2%47.9%
2021111.3%58.6%47.9%
2020115.8%61.4%48.0%
2019100.8%51.6%42.6%
2018100.0%49.8%41.5%
2017101.7%49.1%41.2%
2016104.9%48.3%38.6%
2015102.3%45.2%35.1%
2014103.4%39.9%31.2%
2013104.0%38.4%30.9%
2012107.1%38.0%29.9%
2011102.2%38.3%29.9%
201098.4%39.6%28.4%
200993.1%41.1%29.9%
200879.9%36.4%27.5%
200774.7%38.4%29.4%
200678.8%41.0%33.0%
200582.2%45.9%42.0%

In a retreat from 2020 highs, public debt is projected to fall meaningfully compared to GDP by 2027 for advanced economies excluding America. Emerging markets are also projected to see this leverage ratio decline.

Low-income countries have smaller debt levels compared to output, which is expected to continue over the next five years. Despite this, 39 of these countries are in debt distressโ€”or are close to itโ€”as high interest rates add pressure to government balance sheets.

Are High Global Debt Levels Sustainable?

The good news is that 60% of economies are forecast to see their public debt-to-GDP ratios fall below COVID-19 peaks by 2027.

On the other hand, many large advanced and emerging economies, including China, Brazil, Japan, and Tรผrkiye are projected to face steeper debt. In the U.S., payments on public debt have soared to record levels due to rising interest rates.

This comes as aging populations, slower economic growth, and healthcare costs are straining government spending, a trend seen across many advanced economies.

Countries with economic growth rising faster than real interest rates may be more likely to sustain high debt levels. But sticky inflation, prompting higher interest rates, will likely make these debt piles even more fragile.

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Economy

Visualizing the $105 Trillion World Economy in One Chart

How much does each country contribute to the $105 trillion world economy in 2023, and what nations are seeing their nominal GDPs shrink?

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A chart showing the breakup of the world economy, organized by the size of each country's gross domestic product.

Visualizing the $105 Trillion World Economy in One Chart

By the end of 2023, the world economy is expected to have a gross domestic product (GDP) of $105 trillion, or $5 trillion higher than the year before, according to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections from its 2023 World Economic Outlook report.

In nominal terms, that’s a 5.3% increase in global GDP. In inflation-adjusted terms, that would be a 2.8% increase.

โ„น๏ธ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of economic outputโ€”goods and servicesโ€”produced within a given time frame by both the private and public sectors. All numbers used in this article, unless otherwise specified, are nominal figures, and do not account for inflation.

The year started with turmoil for the global economy, with financial markets rocked by the collapse of several mid-sized U.S. banks alongside persistent inflation and tightening monetary conditions in most countries. Nevertheless, some economies have proven to be resilient, and are expected to register growth from 2022.

Ranking Countries by Economic Size in 2023

The U.S. is expected to continue being the biggest economy in 2023 with a projected GDP of $26.9 trillion for the year. This is more than the sum of the GDPs of 174 countries ranked from Indonesia (17th) to Tuvalu (191st).

China stays steady at second place with a projected $19.4 trillion GDP in 2023. Most of the top-five economies remain in the same positions from 2022, with one notable exception.

India is expected to climb past the UK to become the fifth-largest economy with a projected 2023 GDP of $3.7 trillion.

Hereโ€™s a look at the size of every countryโ€™s economy in 2023, according to IMFโ€™s estimates.

RankCountryGDP (USD)% of Total
1๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.$26,855B25.54%
2๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China$19,374B18.43%
3๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan$4,410B4.19%
4๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany$4,309B4.10%
5๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India$3,737B3.55%
6๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง UK$3,159B3.00%
7๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France$2,923B2.78%
8๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy$2,170B2.06%
9๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada$2,090B1.99%
10๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil$2,081B1.98%
11๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia$2,063B1.96%
12๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea$1,722B1.64%
13๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia$1,708B1.62%
14๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico$1,663B1.58%
15๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain$1,492B1.42%
16๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia$1,392B1.32%
17๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands$1,081B1.03%
18๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia$1,062B1.01%
19๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Tรผrkiye$1,029B0.98%
20๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland$870B0.83%
21๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan$791B0.75%
22๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland$749B0.71%
23๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina$641B0.61%
24๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium$624B0.59%
25๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden$599B0.57%
26๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland$594B0.57%
27๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand$574B0.55%
28๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway$554B0.53%
29๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel$539B0.51%
30๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore$516B0.49%
31๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria$515B0.49%
32๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Nigeria$507B0.48%
33๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช UAE$499B0.47%
34๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam$449B0.43%
35๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia$447B0.43%
36๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines$441B0.42%
37๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh$421B0.40%
38๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark$406B0.39%
39๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa$399B0.38%
40๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt$387B0.37%
41๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong$383B0.36%
42๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran$368B0.35%
43๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile$359B0.34%
44๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania$349B0.33%
45๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia$335B0.32%
46๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic$330B0.31%
47๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland$302B0.29%
48๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru$268B0.26%
49๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraq$268B0.25%
50๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal$268B0.25%
51๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand$252B0.24%
52๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan$246B0.23%
53๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece$239B0.23%
54๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar$220B0.21%
55๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria$206B0.20%
56๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary$189B0.18%
57๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ Kuwait$165B0.16%
58๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡น Ethiopia$156B0.15%
59๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine$149B0.14%
60๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco$139B0.13%
61๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovak
Republic
$128B0.12%
62๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador$121B0.12%
63๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican
Republic
$121B0.12%
64๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ท Puerto Rico$121B0.11%
65๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Kenya$118B0.11%
66๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด Angola$118B0.11%
67๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ Oman$105B0.10%
68๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡น Guatemala$102B0.10%
69๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria$101B0.10%
70๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช Venezuela$97B0.09%
71๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan$92B0.09%
72๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg$87B0.08%
73๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ Tanzania$85B0.08%
74๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฒ Turkmenistan$83B0.08%
75๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia$79B0.08%
76๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania$78B0.07%
77๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ท Costa Rica$78B0.07%
78๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay$77B0.07%
79๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama$77B0.07%
80๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Cรดte d'Ivoire$77B0.07%
81๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia$74B0.07%
82๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus$74B0.07%
83๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan$70B0.07%
84๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ DRC$69B0.07%
85๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia$68B0.06%
86๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana$67B0.06%
87๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar$64B0.06%
88๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan$52B0.05%
89๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia$50B0.05%
90๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Uganda$50B0.05%
91๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Cameroon$49B0.05%
92๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia$47B0.05%
93๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Sudan$47B0.04%
94๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡พ Libya$46B0.04%
95๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ด Bolivia$46B0.04%
96๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ญ Bahrain$45B0.04%
97๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay$43B0.04%
98๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต Nepal$42B0.04%
99๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia$42B0.04%
100๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ด Macao$36B0.03%
101๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ณ Honduras$34B0.03%
102๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป El Salvador$34B0.03%
103๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฌ Papua
New Guinea
$33B0.03%
104๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal$31B0.03%
105๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Cyprus$31B0.03%
106๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia$31B0.03%
107๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ผ Zimbabwe$30B0.03%
108๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Zambia$29B0.03%
109๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland$29B0.03%
110๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia &
Herzegovina
$28B0.03%
111๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡น Trinidad
& Tobago
$28B0.03%
112๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia$28B0.03%
113๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti$27B0.03%
114๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Armenia$24B0.02%
115๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ณ Guinea$23B0.02%
116๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ Burkina Faso$21B0.02%
117๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Mali$21B0.02%
118๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Gabon$20B0.02%
119๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Albania$20B0.02%
120๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Mozambique$20B0.02%
121๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ Botswana$20B0.02%
122๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช Yemen$20B0.02%
123๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta$19B0.02%
124๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฏ Benin$19B0.02%
125๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ West Bank
& Gaza
$19B0.02%
126๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Nicaragua$17B0.02%
127๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Jamaica$17B0.02%
128๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mongolia$17B0.02%
129๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ช Niger$17B0.02%
130๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡พ Guyana$16B0.02%
131๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Madagascar$16B0.02%
132๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Moldova$16B0.02%
133๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei Darussalam$16B0.01%
134๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ North Macedonia$15B0.01%
135๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ถ Equatorial Guinea$15B0.01%
136๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บ Mauritius$15B0.01%
137๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ธ Bahamas$14B0.01%
138๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos$14B0.01%
139๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Namibia$13B0.01%
140๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผ Rwanda$13B0.01%
141๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Congo$13B0.01%
142๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฏ Tajikistan$13B0.01%
143๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Kyrgyz Republic$12B0.01%
144๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ Chad$12B0.01%
145๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ Malawi$11B0.01%
146๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ท Mauritania$11B0.01%
147๐Ÿ‡ฝ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Kosovo$10B0.01%
148๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฌ Togo$9B0.01%
149๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด Somalia$9B0.01%
150๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ช Montenegro$7B0.01%
151๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South Sudan$7B0.01%
152๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ป Maldives$7B0.01%
153๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง Barbados$6B0.01%
154๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Fiji$5B0.01%
155๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Eswatini$5B0.00%
156๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ท Liberia$4B0.00%
157๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Djibouti$4B0.00%
158๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Andorra$4B0.00%
159๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ผ Aruba$4B0.00%
160๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra Leone$4B0.00%
161๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท Suriname$3B0.00%
162๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ Burundi$3B0.00%
163๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ Belize$3B0.00%
164๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ซ Central
African Republic
$3B0.00%
165๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡น Bhutan$3B0.00%
166๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ท Eritrea$3B0.00%
167๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lesotho$3B0.00%
168๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cabo Verde$2B0.00%
169๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Gambia$2B0.00%
170๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡จ Saint Lucia$2B0.00%
171๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฑ East Timor$2B0.00%
172๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ Seychelles$2B0.00%
173๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ผ Guinea-Bissau$2B0.00%
174๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Antigua & Barbuda$2B0.00%
175๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino$2B0.00%
176๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ง Solomon Islands$2B0.00%
177๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Comoros$1B0.00%
178๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Grenada$1B0.00%
179๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡บ Vanuatu$1B0.00%
180๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ณ Saint Kitts
& Nevis
$1B0.00%
181๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡จ Saint Vincent
& the Grenadines
$1B0.00%
182๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡ธ Samoa$1B0.00%
183๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Dominica$1B0.00%
184๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡น Sรฃo Tomรฉ
& Prรญncipe
$1B0.00%
185๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ด Tonga$1B0.00%
186๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Micronesia$0.5B0.00%
187๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ญ Marshall Islands$0.3B0.00%
188๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ผ Palau$0.3B0.00%
189๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Kiribati$0.2B0.00%
190๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ท Nauru$0.2B0.00%
191๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ป Tuvalu$0.1B0.00%

Note: Projections for Afghanistan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Syria are missing from IMFโ€™s database for 2023.

Here are the largest economies for each region of the world.

  • Africa: Nigeria ($506.6 billion)
  • Asia: China ($19.4 trillion)
  • Europe: Germany ($4.3 trillion)
  • Middle East: Saudi Arabia ($1.1 trillion)
  • North & Central America: U.S. ($26.9 trillion)
  • Oceania: Australia ($1.7 trillion)
  • South America: Brazil ($2.1 trillion)

Ranked: 2023โ€™s Shrinking Economies

In fact, 29 economies are projected to shrink from their 2022 sizes, leading to nearly $500 billion in lost output.

A bar chart showing the amount of nominal GDP shrinkage for several countries.

Russia will see the biggest decline, with a projected $150 billion contraction this year. This is equal to about one-third of total decline of all 29 countries with shrinking economies.

Egypt (-$88 billion) and Canada (-$50 billion) combined make up another one-third of lost output.

In Egypt’s case, the drop can be partly explained by the country’s currency (Egyptian pound), which has dropped in value against the U.S. dollar by about 50% since mid-2022.

Russia and Canada are some of the world’s largest oil producers and the oil price has fallen since 2022. A further complication for Russia is that the country has been forced to sell oil at a steep discount because of Western sanctions.

Here are the projected changes in GDP for all countries facing year-over-year declines:

CountryRegion2022โ€“23 Change (USD)2022โ€“23 Change (%)
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RussiaEurope-$152.65B-6.9%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ EgyptAfrica-$88.12B-18.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ CanadaNorth America-$50.17B-2.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi ArabiaMiddle East-$46.25B-4.2%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ BangladeshAsia-$39.69B-8.6%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด NorwayEurope-$25.16B-4.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ KuwaitMiddle East-$19.85B-10.8%
๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ OmanMiddle East-$9.77B-8.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด ColombiaSouth America-$9.25B-2.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช UAEMiddle East-$8.56B-1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South AfricaAfrica-$6.69B-1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ GhanaAfrica-$6.22B-8.5%
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ QatarMiddle East-$5.91B-2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด AngolaAfrica-$3.54B-2.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ผ ZimbabweAfrica-$3.09B-9.4%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ UkraineEurope-$2.79B-1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ SudanAfrica-$2.72B-5.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ IraqMiddle East-$2.47B-0.9%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฑ East TimorAsia-$1.67B-45.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ GabonAfrica-$1.60B-7.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ถ Equatorial GuineaAfrica-$1.35B-8.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ MalawiAfrica-$1.24B-9.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ LaosAsia-$1.21B-7.9%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ BruneiAsia-$1.13B-6.8%
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช YemenMiddle East-$1.12B-5.4%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South SudanAfrica-$0.86B-10.9%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ BurundiAfrica-$0.66B-16.9%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra LeoneAfrica-$0.42B-10.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท SurinameSouth America-$0.05B-1.4%

The presence of Saudi Arabia, Norway, Kuwait, and Oman in the top 10 biggest GDP contractions further highlights the potential impact on GDP for oil-producing countries, according to the IMF’s projections.

More recently, producers have been cutting supply in an effort to boost prices, but concerns of slowing global oil demand in the wake of a subdued Chinese economy (the worldโ€™s second-largest oil consumer), have kept oil prices lower than in 2022 regardless.

The Footnote on GDP Forecasts

While organizations like the IMF have gotten fairly good at GDP forecasting, itโ€™s still worth remembering that these are projections and assumptions made at the beginning of the year that may not hold true by the end of 2023.

For example, JP Morgan has already changed their forecast for Chinaโ€™s 2023 real GDP growth six times in as many months after expectations of broad-based pandemic-recovery spending did not materialize in the country.

The key takeaway from IMFโ€™s projections for 2023 GDP growth rests on how well countries restrict inflation without stifling growth, all amidst tense liquidity conditions.

Where Does This Data Come From?

Source: The International Monetary Fund’s Datamapper which uses projections made in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook report.

Note: Projections for Afghanistan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Syria are missing from the IMFโ€™s database. Furthermore, all figures used in the article, unless specified, are nominal GDP numbers and rates.

 

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